Anyone can publish a view; the receipts decide which were worth reading. Each position below entered the record in print, at the price published at the time, and stays on it until closed in print. The positions are ours, tracked so readers can audit the judgement behind them; nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Read the research →
Memory is not weakening: the ~50% fall from the June peak was a forced seller in a crowded trade, not a change in the business. What changed is the selling: on 28 July the company concluded long-term agreements with around ten customers, normally five years, carrying volume commitments and customer deposits with pricing left flexible. Contracted volume at open prices is a toll, not a commodity. Bear 820,000 / base 1,520,000 / bull 3,110,000 on multiples of pre-tax operating profit. Decisive test: do remaining performance obligations, contract liabilities and customer deposits appear in the accounts within two reporting periods.
FPSO lease-and-operate toll, not an oil bet: $31.1bn backlog to 2050, ~80% lease-and-operate at ~54% margin; the $8bn IFRS net debt is non-recourse project finance (Directional $3.2bn, -43% y/y); ~5x fwd EV/EBITDA vs plumbers 6-15x; ~7% cash yield with a $2.1bn six-year floor. Underwritten over three years.
First discount to the S&P since 2008; GLP-1 fear backwards; data-moat option — restated 2026-07-27 as an option on two names (RMD, ABT), not a feature of the basket. Globus Medical (GMED) sold at the 2026-07-28 close on an FDA warning letter still open two years after issue; Medtronic RETAINED.
Almond supply cycle broken; replacement-cost floor A$3.30-3.50; buyback at the trough
41% multiple gap to the S&P closes. NOTE: this is a VALUATION-GAP trade. The savings-rotation flow thesis developed after entry points at ONSHORE A-shares/brokers; KWEB is an offshore wrapper and does not capture it mechanically.
Same as KWEB; broader wrapper. Same caveat: offshore, so the onshore savings-rotation mechanism is not directly held.
Deep-discount holding: net cash + trough ops cover the market cap 2.3x; original four-week thesis dead, scored MISS (F2)
Post-spin forced selling done; index inclusion + margin bridge to Froneri
UK market priced for a HIKE (Bank Rate 3.75%, held 7-2 on 17 Jun with 2 members voting to hike, none to cut; OIS terminal ~4.2% early-27) while the data points to cuts: private wage growth 2.9% (lowest since 2020), services CPI eased to 3.6% (Jun). Long the front end profits if the 2y yield falls. Wrong if services re-accelerates and the BoE hikes.
Uranium deficit; own the commodity at NAV, not the equities
Hormuz war premium via ton-miles; sold when the premium deflated on the US-Iran MOU
Market mispricing the 1973 stagflation map; both tails resolve into cuts
Wrong Map rates leg; mechanism updated in the Right Trade re-underwrite (v5)