Anyone can publish a view; the receipts decide which were worth reading. Each position below entered the record in print, at the price published at the time, and stays on it until closed in print. The positions are ours, tracked so readers can audit the judgement behind them; nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Read the research →
Memory is not weakening: the ~50% fall from the June peak was a forced seller in a crowded trade, not a change in the business. What changed is the selling: on 28 July the company concluded long-term agreements with around ten customers, normally five years, carrying volume commitments and customer deposits with pricing left flexible. Contracted volume at open prices is a toll, not a commodity. Bear 820,000 / base 1,520,000 / bull 3,110,000 on multiples of pre-tax operating profit. Decisive test: do remaining performance obligations, contract liabilities and customer deposits appear in the accounts within two reporting periods.
FPSO lease-and-operate toll, not an oil bet: $31.1bn backlog to 2050, ~80% lease-and-operate at ~54% margin; the $8bn IFRS net debt is non-recourse project finance (~~Directional $3.2bn, -43% y/y~~ — that was SBM's 31 Mar 2026 figure, Q1-2026 Trading Update, correctly sourced but undated; RE-DATED 2026-09-03 at the primary: Directional **US$3,680m** at 30 Jun 2026, -35% vs FY2025 US$5,651m; IFRS US$5,922m vs US$8,068m; backlog a record **$35.6bn** vs $31.1bn; shares 166,889,767 filed, not the provider's 164.8m); ~5x fwd EV/EBITDA vs plumbers 6-15x and ~7% cash yield with a $2.1bn six-year floor (both as published 2026-07-21; re-derived 2026-09-03 on filed inputs: 5.5x Directional EV/guided FY26 EBITDA, cash return 5.5-6.9% of market cap). Underwritten over three years.
First discount to the S&P since 2008; GLP-1 fear backwards; data-moat option — restated 2026-07-27 as an option on two names (RMD, ABT), not a feature of the basket. Globus Medical (GMED) sold at the 2026-07-28 close on an FDA warning letter still open two years after issue; Medtronic RETAINED.
Almond supply cycle broken; replacement-cost floor A$3.30-3.50; buyback at the trough
41% multiple gap to the S&P closes. NOTE: this is a VALUATION-GAP trade. The savings-rotation flow thesis developed after entry points at ONSHORE A-shares/brokers; KWEB is an offshore wrapper and does not capture it mechanically.
Same as KWEB; broader wrapper. Same caveat: offshore, so the onshore savings-rotation mechanism is not directly held.
2026-09-04 (Pass B, propagated): the discount is a holder-level price on management's willingness to sell, separable from Insta360's own de-rate — implied credit on the stake (stub at zero) was 16.6% at entry and is 18.0% now, essentially unmoved while Arashi halved. The '40 Act mechanism is soft at every Arashi price (FY2025 20-F states reliance on the §3(b)(1) 'primarily engaged' exclusion even if the asset test is met); not a statutory clock. Pass B recommended CUT TO OPTION SIZE; the Owner ruled HOLD THE FULL POSITION on 2026-09-04. M-limb (no 减持计划 by the Q3 6-K) is scored as a falsifier MISS, not a pre-committed exit. Superseded prior text: 'net cash + trough ops cover the market cap 2.3x' (the stub itself posted a Q2 GAAP operating loss).
Post-spin forced selling done; index inclusion + margin bridge to Froneri
UK market priced for a HIKE (Bank Rate 3.75%, held 7-2 on 17 Jun with 2 members voting to hike, none to cut; OIS terminal ~4.2% early-27) while the data points to cuts: private wage growth 2.9% (lowest since 2020), services CPI eased to 3.6% (Jun). Long the front end profits if the 2y yield falls. Wrong if services re-accelerates and the BoE hikes.
Uranium deficit; own the commodity at NAV, not the equities
Hormuz war premium via ton-miles; sold when the premium deflated on the US-Iran MOU
Market mispricing the 1973 stagflation map; both tails resolve into cuts
Wrong Map rates leg; mechanism updated in the Right Trade re-underwrite (v5)